Manual War Gaming Methods
The American military frequently employs manual war gaming methods as key analytical techniques. War gaming itself provides situational models that can reveal ideal decision-making processes and illuminate the pros and cons of potential courses of action. Conflict situations are generally framed in scientific or mathematical terms, offering clues for troop maneuvering, combat situations, and taking into account situational or interpersonal variables. In spite of tremendous and helpful advancements in technology and the tools of technology applied to war gaming, manual war gaming remains a core component of military preparedness. Manual war gaming methods enable the conceptualization of skills and resources possessed in light of the realities on the field. Moreover, manual war games provide a transparent, accessible means for visualization. The three primary manual war gaming methods include deliberate timeline analysis, operational phasing, and critical events/sequence of essential tasks. Each of these three manual war gaming methods presents distinct advantages and disadvantages, and their use depends largely on the situational constraints.
Deliberate timeline analysis provides a structured means of war gaming that can be sequential and chronological in nature. Actions and considerations are considered on a moment to moment or day-to-day action, allowing for a more thorough analysis than the other two war gaming methods. Deliberate timeline analysis allows for the visualization of action according to linear time, and is especially helpful when long-range planning is called for or when simultaneous action is warranted. Deliberate timeline analysis takes into account the differential needs of commanders working on specific units. However, deliberate timeline analysis does not necessarily account for issues related to chance and can be more time and resource intensive than the other two methods.
Operational phasing is a method of course of action analysis that identifies elements in each operation, including major points of control and constraint. The actions that may be required by each unit according to its resources and functionalities are taken into account. While operational phasing permits a complex analysis of the situation, it can be relatively narrow in focus compared to the other two methods of war gaming.
Critical events/sequence of essential tasks provides one of the best methods of manual war gaming. Like the other two methods. Critical events or sequencing of essential tasks can offer a relatively fast and effective means of event analysis and effectively simulates variables. The initial causal factors may also be taken into account, as are resource capacities. Planners and strategists are able to envision their adaptation capabilities when faced with enemy surprises. Given the importance of adaptation and the invariability of elements of chance, war gamers are better prepared to analyze what tasks may be required in each situation.
WARGAME
WHAT IT DOES
ADVANTAGES
DISADVANTAGES
Deliberate Timeline Analysis
Sequencing, chronology, synchronous/asynchronous
Differential needs assessment; long-range or short-range tactical planning
Time consuming
Operational Phasing
Framework that includes the main actions or needs of each unit and the reasons or causal variables.
Analysis of points of constraints; detailed phasing analysis; good for complex situations.
Narrow focus
Critical Events/Sequence of Essential Tasks
Highlights core issues and variables; highlights causal issues and capacities; illuminates strengths and weaknesses
Takes into account multiple variables; flexible
Few disadvantages; ideally enhanced by simultaneous use of other war gaming methods
JOPP
Joint Operation Planning Process (JOPP) includes several core steps, the understanding of which can enhance the effectiveness of the entire planning procedure. The steps are logical, based on core theories including game theory, and can tremendously aid in the process of analysis. The JOPP can also show how various parties and players can and should interact in order to address the problem or create an ideal solution. There are seven major steps in the JOPP, including initiation, mission analysis, course of action (COA) development, COA analysis and war gaming, COA comparison, COA approval, and plan or order development. Generally these steps flow chronologically in order, but there may be overlap or elimination of a few steps due to the nature of the situation. Although mistakes and challenges may besiege planners at each of these junctions, staff may find COA approval the most difficult due to the real political and ideological constraints on the decision-making process.
Compared with the other steps of JOPP, COA approval is the stage at which collaboration and cooperation become most critical. The initiation step is relatively simple in this regard, as all parties share common concerns and goals. Mission analysis takes place in a brainstorming situation and analysis rarely evokes conflict or confrontation. Other steps can require collaboration and cooperation, but none to the degree of the approval process. For example, at step two during the development of COA, planners take into account multiple inputs from commanders and receive guidance. However, the approval and order development requires actual decisions that can lead to conflict that had yet to arise in the JOPP.
Step six, COA approval, uses commander mission and vision, which could contrast with other simultaneous operations. For this reason, COA approval can be difficult for staff. Participants in the JOPP need to keep in mind the means by which JOPP works, remain cognizant of the bigger picture, and be reminded also of the overarching values and goals of the mission at hand. Other steps will give rise to questions and concerns, too. For instance, the step three COA involves detailed assessments of enemy strengths and weaknesses. Yet during the COA approval phase, commanders have more input than in other stages. COA analysis during the war gaming step allows for the refinement of the plan, and step four does include decision-making processes as comparison of options takes place. However, the transitional phase is more difficult because it signals the end of the gaming stage and the transition to implementation.
Because COA approval engages multiple parties with different ranks in the organizational hierarchy, staff members are challenged on an interpersonal and psychological level more so than at other stages in JOPP. When JOPP reaches the sixth stage, a handover takes place in which many staff who had become attached to their ideas during JOPP might find their input being derided or dismissed. This is likely to give rise to conflict. Therefore, while the fifth stage can be explosive in nature too with plans and order development reaching a crescendo, it is during the transitional handover stage that the situation begins to feel more “real,” as it may be implemented in the real world.
The JOPP is a thorough, systematic, and time-honored system of analysis involving several steps. Each of these steps presents the team with particular challenges, but of them, the approval process may be the most challenging due to the political and social variables that arise. During this stage, it is critical to remain aware of the overarching goals, values, and intents of the entire campaign.
Phases of Campaign
Military campaigns or operations are systematic, and so are their planning procedures. The six phases used during a campaign or operation include the following:
Phase
Description
Transitions
Termination
Prevention/Preparation/Situation Development
During this phase, multiple agencies convene, meet, and interact, possibly on a routine basis. No crisis has occurred at this phase, which is why it is sometimes designated as Phase 0. However, it is broadly understood that anticipation requires constant vigilance, COA, and JOPP. Analyses may include an understanding of pre-hostile environments and allow for the evolution of further phases in the campaign. During this stage, all friendly alliances are reconfirmed, and some projections or determinations of potential adversaries are discussed.
Criteria for transitioning into the next phase include the clear identification of threats
This phase is terminated when enemies that have been identified need to be deterred using specific means or courses of action.
Deterrence of Enemy/Definition of Crisis
This phase begins when specific adversaries have not only been identified, but their goals and objectives also laid out in terms of corresponding needs and goals on the part of the United States and its allies. Deterrence may include deployment of peacemaking forces or strengthening of existing forces.
Criteria for transitioning into the next phase include the clear identification of threats
This phase is terminated when enemies that have been identified need to be deterred using specific means or courses of action.
Seizing of Initiative/Access Infrastructure
This is a critical phase in the military campaign or operation. It begins when crises escalate and further actions must be determined, analyzed, and outlined in cohesive and specific manners. The initiative needs to be seized early, as tactical advantages may be possible. To access the infrastructure, combat forces focus on impeding enemy advancements and dismantle enemy resources or infrastructure. Friendly freedom of action through comprehensive collaborations are used to provide necessary assistance to allies with shared goals, and also to ensure openness of the theater.
Criteria for transition certainly include understanding of the operational environment and infrastructure in the physical theater, including cohesive and comprehensive geographic analysis.
This phase comes to a close as full scale domination is established and maintained through organized and comprehensive action.
Domination/Establish Superiority
Domination and the establishment of superiority occurs when enemy forces are contained and driven away, using whatever specific means are warranted for the campaign. The establishment of superiority may take place in conjunction with allied forces, and this will allow for stability operations to commence as the next phase begins.
Criteria for shifting into the next phase include assessment of the campaign in conjunction with all departments, and meeting the criteria for domination according to the terms that had been outlined in previous phases of the operation.
Phase is terminated when the establishment of superiority is defined in ways that are specific to the campaign, and stakeholders are prepared for stabilization.
Stabilization/Restoration of Services
This phase is critical in that it focuses on stabilization efforts and restoring necessary services on the ground and to civilians. Because this phase precedes the transfer of authority to civil powers, it is crucial that military commanders do not rush through the stabilization process but rather come up with comprehensive plans for restoring physical order to infrastructure and essential services.
The transition between stabilization and the enabling or transfer of authority to civil units will be most successful with frequent meetings and collaborations with local officials.
Criteria for termination occurs during the commencement of the following phase, during which civil authority is officially engaged, include assessments of credibility of those civil authorities and the effectiveness of the civilian infrastructure.
Enable Civil Authority/Transfer of Powers
This final phase of the military campaign or operation begins as the restoration and stabilization phase comes to a close. At this stage, local civil authorities assume power and control of infrastructure and resources and are entrusted with the task of further restoration. Providing and ensuring for the civilian population becomes the core concern, and peacekeeping forces may be cooperative as well.
Transitioning back to a Phase 0 condition remains, as the scenarios for pre-hostile environments must continually be taken into account for preventative action.
As this phase draws to a close, so too does the specific campaign in question.
Prevention/Preparation/Situation Development: During this phase, multiple agencies convene, meet, and interact, possibly on a routine basis. No crisis has occurred at this phase, which is why it is sometimes designated as Phase 0. However, it is broadly understood that anticipation requires constant vigilance, COA, and JOPP. Analyses may include an understanding of pre-hostile environments and allow for the evolution of further phases in the campaign. During this stage, all friendly alliances are reconfirmed, and some projections or determinations of potential adversaries are discussed. This phase is terminated when enemies that have been identified need to be deterred using specific means or courses of action. Criteria for transitioning into the next phase include the clear identification of threats.
Deterrence of Enemy/Definition of Crisis: This phase begins when specific adversaries have not only been identified, but their goals and objectives also laid out in terms of corresponding needs and goals on the part of the United States and its allies. Deterrence may include deployment of peacemaking forces or strengthening of existing forces. This phase will end when deterrence methods fail to take root and a crisis escalates, or this phase will end when unexpected variables including the presence of unexpected enemy alliances unfold. Criteria for shifting to the next phase include clarity of the crisis scenario, creation of COA and operation environment plans, and other checklists that define the crisis in clear and unequivocal terms that can be shared between departments.
Seizing of Initiative/Access Infrastructure: This is a critical phase in the military campaign or operation. It begins when crises escalate and further actions must be determined, analyzed, and outlined in cohesive and specific manners. The initiative needs to be seized early, as tactical advantages may be possible. To access the infrastructure, combat forces focus on impeding enemy advancements and dismantle enemy resources or infrastructure. Friendly freedom of action through comprehensive collaborations are used to provide necessary assistance to allies with shared goals, and also to ensure openness of the theater. This phase comes to a close as full scale domination is established and maintained through organized and comprehensive action. Criteria certainly include understanding of the operational environment and infrastructure in the physical theater, including cohesive and comprehensive geographic analysis.
Domination/Establish Superiority: Domination and the establishment of superiority occurs when enemy forces are contained and driven away, using whatever specific means are warranted for the campaign. The establishment of superiority may take place in conjunction with allied forces, and this will allow for stability operations to commence as the next phase begins. Criteria for shifting into the next phase include assessment of the campaign in conjunction with all departments, and meeting the criteria for domination according to the terms that had been outlined in previous phases of the operation. The establishment of superiority is defined in ways that are specific to the campaign.
Stabilization/Restoration of Services: This phase is critical in that it focuses on stabilization efforts and restoring necessary services on the ground and to civilians. Because this phase precedes the transfer of authority to civil powers, it is crucial that military commanders do not rush through the stabilization process but rather come up with comprehensive plans for restoring physical order to infrastructure and essential services. The transition between stabilization and the enabling or transfer of authority to civil units will be most successful with frequent meetings and collaborations with local officials. Criteria for moving onto the next phase, during which civil authority is officially engaged, include assessments of credibility of those civil authorities and the effectiveness of the civilian infrastructure.
Enable Civil Authority/Transfer of Powers: This final phase of the military campaign or operation begins as the restoration and stabilization phase comes to a close. At this stage, local civil authorities assume power and control of infrastructure and resources and are entrusted with the task of further restoration. Providing and ensuring for the civilian population becomes the core concern, and peacekeeping forces may be cooperative as well. As this phase draws to a close, so too does the specific campaign in question. However, Phase 0 remains continually open as the scenarios for pre-hostile environments must continually be taken into account for preventative action.
References
Department of Military Strategy, Planning, and Operations (2008). U.S. Army War College. Retrieved online: http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/army-usawc/campaign_planning_primer.pdf
Joint Operation Planning (2011). August 2011. Retrieved online: http://www.dtic.mil/doctrine/new_pubs/jp5_0.pdf
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